The photovoltaic industry set off a capital war, giants bet on technological transformation
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Securities Times reporter Liu Canbang’s market pursuit of the concept of heterojunction batteries ignites 2020
In the past year, although the domestic market was lower than expected, due to the high economic boom overseas, the combined photovoltaic company has doubled its forecast. According to an interview with the Securities Times e company reporter, the domestic photovoltaic market is currently expected to return to the growth channel.A senior person judged that the newly installed capacity would be over 40GW, an increase of more than 30% in a year.
2020 is a key year for the domestic photovoltaic industry to move towards true parity. After reducing the constraints of compensation, the development space of the photovoltaic industry is also expected to open.
In this context, the expansion of production is intensively staged, and no one is willing to lose a little share in this competition; the rapid transformation of technology in the photovoltaic industry, and the introduction of new technologies constitute new variables, heterojunctions, large silicon wafers, no oneYou can really see what the future will look like, but the companies in it have accelerated on their tracks.
The expansion of financing capacity was increased by a paper announcement on the afternoon of February 18th. JA Solar became the third A-share photovoltaic company to announce its expansion plan since mid-February. The company expects a total investment of approximately 10.2 billion yuan.
The Air Force, Tongwei and Longji have disclosed corresponding investment plans.
At the end of December last year, JA Solar and Yiwu Information Optoelectronics Emerging Industrial Park Management Committee initially invested in a framework agreement to reach a cooperation intention on the annual output of 5GW high-efficiency batteries and 10GW high-efficiency components and supporting projects.
According to the latest announcement, the capacity scale of the high-efficiency battery part of this investment will be expanded from 5GW to 10GW.
According to the plan of Jingao Technology, the above project cycle is expected to be 4 years and will be implemented in two phases. The first phase of 5GW battery + 5GW modules will be reduced in price by December 2021, and the second phase of 5GW batteries + 5GW modules will be implemented in December 2023.
Tongwei’s US $ 20 billion expansion plan once caused a sensation in the market. The company will invest in Jintang County, Chengdu, with an annual output of 30 GW of high-efficiency solar cells and supporting projects.
Among them, the first two phases each invested 4 billion yuan, and construction was 7 respectively.
The 5GW high-efficiency solar cell project will invest 6 billion yuan in each of the latter two phases to build 7 respectively.
5GW high efficiency solar cells and supporting projects.
Tongwei shares said that according to the progress of existing and construction projects, the company will form at least 30GW of solar cell scale in 2020.
After the implementation of all the above projects, the company’s solar cell and supporting project capacity will reach 60GW, and the scale advantage will be further highlighted.
According to the recent announcement, Longji plans to invest in Xi’an Aerospace Base to build an annual output of 10GW single-crystal batteries and supporting pilot projects. The investment is expected to be 4.5 billion yuan, and the project will be implemented in two phases.
In early January this year, Longji Co., Ltd. reached a cooperation intention with the local government on a new investment in Chuxiong to build a 20GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project.
In November last year, the company also announced a new project company to invest 2.5 billion US dollars in Tengchong to build a 10GW annual production of monocrystalline silicon rod project.
Judging from the above situation, the expansion of the photovoltaic industry has spread to the entire industry chain, and upstream silicon materials, silicon wafers, midstream batteries, and modules have not fallen.
The pace of expansion of leading companies has also been clear. Taking Tongwei as an example, the company’s goal by the end of 2020 is to produce high-purity crystalline silicon with a capacity of 8 solar cells and a solar cell capacity of 30?
40GW, the company’s capacity planning has been achieved by 2023.
What is the logic behind the expansion of photovoltaic faucets?
A person from a silicon material company lamented to the Securities Times e company reporter that the photovoltaic industry is developing too fast!
“In a differentiated competitive environment, only by continuously investing in construction, expanding the scale of high-quality production capacity, and increasing market share, can we always ensure that we are in the leading position in the industry.
“In the photovoltaic industry, there are both companies that focus on a single company, such as Zhonghuan Co., Ltd., and companies that are involved in multiple alternatives, such as Longji Co., Ltd .; the former participates in cross-competition and participates in long-term competition.Competitive differentiation.
”Well, private enterprises are fiercely competitive.
“Another photovoltaic upstream company person told reporters when joining the expansion.
The ultimate goal of developing photovoltaics is to achieve parity on-grid, and the cost of electricity is more competitive than traditional energy.
Therefore, in addition to meeting the challenges of industry competition, the scale advantage effect brought by the expansion of production is also very important.
”The cost of one factory is 1, but the cost of two factories is not 1 + 1, it may be only 1.
8 or even constant.
With the intensification of resources and the expansion of production capacity, the advantages of industrialization will become more obvious, and the lower the production cost of the enterprise, the more competitive it will be.
“A person from the aforementioned silicon materials company told reporters.
Expansion will undoubtedly face the problem of where the money comes from. The reporter noticed that in the disclosed photovoltaic expansion plan, the expansion of the listed company’s equal scale may cause some pressure on the company’s future cash flow, and it is necessary to determine the source of funds.Therefore, the phenomenon of excessive thirst for funds at the same time of photovoltaic expansion is also very obvious.
In 2019 alone, the refinancing of A-share photovoltaic companies was frequently staged. Lonky completed a US $ 3.9 billion rights issue in April last year. In October last year, it planned to raise 5 billion yuan through the issuance of convertible bonds.The 5 billion USD fixed-increasing plan for the shares has also been approved and is currently pending implementation.
A related phenomenon is that more and more photovoltaic companies are listed in A shares.
Jinko Power plans to raise US $ 2.5 billion through an IPO and has passed the meeting in January; Trina Solar, which has delisted from the US stock market, is hitting the science and technology board, and plans to raise US $ 3 billion. However, the project’s review was in 1I accidentally clicked the “Pause button” at the beginning of the month.
The situation of JA Technology is also very typical. The company achieved back-to-A listing by backdoor. Before returning to A, the company was left out in the US stock market and its financing capacity was greatly reduced. ”The new energy industry is very costly. Expansion technology is constantly repeating, and restructuring must continue to expand production. Without money, rolling development cannot be achieved.
Leading companies have been madly burning money in recent years, and judging from our company’s situation, production expansion has not stopped.
“A person from the aforementioned silicon materials company told reporters.
Behind the expected expansion of the entire photovoltaic industry chain for new installed capacity, calls for vigilance over a new round of overcapacity have also gradually arisen.
However, unlike the overcapacity around 2011, currently, enterprises are more advanced in terms of capacity planning and downstream demand; in January this year, Longji shares with Jiangsu Runyang and Chengdu Tongwei for three years of silicon wafers.Single sales contract, the amount exceeds 20 billion yuan.
At the same time, the prosperity of the global photovoltaic market is also 北京桑拿洗浴保健 improving. Benefiting from the needs of emerging markets such as China, India, and the traditional photovoltaic market needs of the United States, Japan, and other European and American countries, the global photovoltaic power generation scale has shown a rapid growth trend.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data, the size of the global photovoltaic power generation market will continue to grow at an annual rate of 20% in the future.
In fact, it is precisely due to the high prosperity of overseas markets that a large number of A-share photovoltaic companies have achieved nearly double their performance growth in 2019.
Consecutive replacements in 2018 and 2019, especially the additional installed capacity in 2019 is only 30.
1GW, a drop of 32%.
2020 is the last year for domestic photovoltaic bidding to go online, and it is also a key transition year to start the parity era. All sectors of the market are looking forward to this year’s market space. When will the domestic photovoltaic market return to the rising channel?
The policy environment remains the most important intervention force in the photovoltaic industry.
In the exchanges with many photovoltaic practitioners, the most continuous word heard by Securities Times · e company reporters is still “531 Policy”-in fact, the indicator of the policy to replace the decline of photovoltaics has been published nearly two years ago.The watershed effect is significant.
The most recent policy is the 2020 photovoltaic power generation project construction plan issued by the National Energy Administration at the end of January this year, which states that information on no supplementary parity projects should be submitted in mid-March this year.Submitted before 30th of the month, it is also clear that the supplementary budget budget for new photovoltaic projects in 2020 is $ 1.5 billion.
The reporter noticed that the photovoltaic bidding policy document was released late last year, and the bidding work was only completed in mid-July, which will definitely cause the final addition of installed capacity to be less than expected.
This year’s photovoltaic project construction plan is issued in advance, which is considered to be a positive signal released to the industry, which is conducive to ensuring the new installed capacity in 2020.
A person from a leading photovoltaic company who originally announced the expansion plan told a Securities Times e company reporter that after considering deferred projects last year and new projects this year, is it expected that the new photovoltaic installations will reach 40GW in 2020?
GF Securities also made a forecast that in 2020, new photovoltaic installations in China are expected to exceed 40GW, an increase of more than 30%.
According to the analysis of Guangfa Securities, this year’s photovoltaic project competition allocation plan is implemented with reference to last year. In response to the increase in actual experience, the development of photovoltaic bidding in 2020 will be significantly faster than in 2019. The early landing of bidding projects will effectively guarantee the addition of photovoltaic installations in 2020.scale.
In order to achieve photovoltaic parity as soon as possible and reduce reliance on supplements, according to relevant policies, approved bidding projects must be connected to the grid on time. Failure to connect to the grid on time will make up for the pressure to reduce or even cancel.
Therefore, it is also worth paying attention to whether snap-up installation will become a major point of the domestic photovoltaic market this year. Guoxin Securities should be optimistic and point out that 2020 is the last year to supplement the photovoltaic belt in China. The domestic market may usher in the “ultimate grabInstalled “.
Regarding whether there will be a rush to install in 2020, a domestic photovoltaic power generation operator’s point of view is relatively good, “In the past, many private enterprises rushed to install in order to lock in electricity prices and realize the revenue by selling generators in the future, but nowThe level of electricity price supplementation has become less attractive to power plant investors. In the case of uncertain prospects, and it is found that professional generator operators have investment needs, the intent of rush installation with sales as the main purpose is not so much.Obviously.
“” Low-level electricity prices will reduce the profitability of enterprises after rushing to install. At the same time, due to the impact of the overall economic environment, private investors have greater pressure to reset their financing.
“Based on the views of the operators of the power plant, the investment in power plants will become more rational, and it may be difficult to reinstall them.
Wang Bohua, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said recently that the market size in 2020 is mainly composed of four parts, one is some unfinished bidding / parity projects in 2019, and the second is new bidding / parity projects in 2020.It is a spontaneous and self-used distributed, household project, the fourth is the leader award project, the national demonstration project, and so on.
Wang Bohua revealed that due to the emergence of the epidemic, is currently considering adjusting the forecast for another increase to 35GW?
He also shared several challenges in the market this year, including competition for the consumption space between different clean energy sources, and the consumption space in individual provinces has been overdrawn in advance, and also includes the goal of completing the 5% abandonment rate.
The power plant investor said frankly that the domestic market may improve slightly this year, but it is too early to predict a gradual increase in scale.
“Some construction sites may not be able to resume work on time due to obstacles such as migrant workers returning to the city. Some bidding projects must be connected to the grid before the end of June. The actual progress remains to be seen. In the future, government departments may issue special incentives for the photovoltaic industryTherefore, it is clearer to predict the expected situation in March and April.
“New technology advances have their own points. Heterojunction photovoltaic cells (HIT or HJT) are not new technologies, but this concept has unexpectedly detonated the first round of growth in the A-share photovoltaic sector in 2020.
Shanmei International is one of the representatives in this round of market. Due to previous changes, the company also issued a risk alert announcement.
Shanmei International is mainly engaged in the production and sales of coal. It was associated with photovoltaic on July 23 last year. The company signed an agreement with Junshi Energy to propose a joint construction of a 10 GW heterojunction cell production line project.
The company said that the heterojunction is an advanced mass production battery technology that combines the advanced technology of existing silicon-based batteries and thin-film batteries, and will be committed to using and continuously seeking new power generation technologies.
Just to achieve, the ultimate goal of photovoltaic is to achieve a continuous reduction in the cost of electricity. Any improvement in the efficiency of the conversion will reduce this cost.
The current mainstream photovoltaic cell plan is to use PERC technology. The data shows that the conversion efficiency of the heterojunction cell in mass production on the production line is 23.
About 5%, leading PERC efficiency is 1%, and there is still room for improvement in the future.
Everbright Securities pointed out that as a high-efficiency photovoltaic product in the future, heterojunction is expected to lead the technological change. It is a good choice for companies in the international photovoltaic mid-to-high-end market that are also involved in energy conversion in the country.
As a latecomer, Shanmei International chose heterojunction cells, and many of the leading photovoltaic companies have already begun to deploy.
The expansion plan just announced by Tongwei has replaced space for the development of heterogeneous junctions. The company stated that it has been proactively deploying new technologies, and new projects will consider the industrialization of new technologies in due course. The major technology choices for high-efficiency products such as +, Topcon and HJT will promote the continuous reduction of non-silicon costs for solar cells.
At present, Tongwei has three HJT pilot lines with a scale of 400MW, which is in the leading position in the industry.
Tongwei Co., Ltd. stated that in the above project planning, the company will promote industrialization deployment in a timely manner according to the development process of HJT technology.
In addition, at least, in the 10.2 billion investment plan disclosed by JA Technology, according to the investment intensity measurement, there is a voice in the capital market that the technology route planned by JA Technology is most likely HJT technology.
Securities Times e company reporter calls JA Technology, a company source said that such a calculation is not based on the company ‘s announced total investment involving working capital, land, and plant construction, while the investment usually mentioned in the market only includes equipment and caliber.Different.
However, the person also said that the company currently focuses on mainstream products in the market, and will continue to pay attention to new technologies such as heterojunction.
In addition to the series connection of cells, large silicon wafers are also a major feature of photovoltaic technology advancement, especially represented by Zhonghuan’s 210 silicon wafers.
According to the information disclosed by Zhonghuan, since the release of 210 silicon wafer products, long-term downstream customers have proposed cooperation. At present, most of the production capacity has been locked, and the product has been industrialized and exclusively supplied; the company’s five-phase project is gradually put into production.Promoting the industry, the competitive advantage of new photovoltaic energy over other forms of energy will be further highlighted.
The reporter learned that the mainstream size of photovoltaic silicon wafers in the past was 156mm, and some manufacturers are already researching to transform the production line to sizes such as 166mm. Although large silicon wafers are the trend, the method of Zhonghuan shares directly jumping to 210mm size is worthy of uniqueness.
Large silicon wafers have higher cutting efficiency, but issues such as the high chip rate of 210 silicon wafers are temporarily resolved, and many manufacturers are still watching.
”Whether it is a 210 silicon wafer or a heterojunction battery, we are paying serious attention to it and actively reserve technical power. Although this is the future direction of development, we have not seen clear economics and market orders.
Once the future economic reset, we will also promote the development of responsive technology.
“An old photovoltaic company person told this article to reporters.
However, the person also admitted that technology has gradually brought very big changes to the market.
“The iteration of photovoltaic products is very fast. Once it enters the market, the time window for each manufacturer may only be six months or months.
“Because it has gone through multiple rounds of technology iterations, the person said that companies generally do not take the lead in technology because once the initial investment is not good, they may face problems such as cash flow and difficult market U-turns.Act after the argument.
“In fact, many photovoltaic companies have expressed their views on technological progress. For example, Longji shares said that regarding the technical route of batteries, the current cost of HIT exceeds PERC, and the economy of large-scale production is not yet large.
In response to the trend of large silicon wafers, the scale of Tongwei shares. In terms of product size, the company adapts to the trend of large product sizes, and the specifications will be fully compatible with 210 and below sizes.
The impact of technological progress on the upstream and midstream industrial chains is quite strong, but the tolerance of downstream generator operators is significantly higher.
“Technological progress will increase power generation efficiency. We do not necessarily need to adopt new technologies. As long as we use some new technology products, as long as the construction plan meets the installed scale and budget range, in addition, we must provide product warranty.
“The aforementioned power plant writers wrote to reporters.
Photovoltaic roofing is also a part of the industry’s recent growth that has attracted much attention. However, this is a technological transformation, rather than a change in business model.
Musk recently stated that while the U.S. is stepping up the installation of its photovoltaic roof business, Tesla claims to expand the business to the European and Chinese markets, and Musk then made it clear that it would enter these markets later this year.
Domestic companies are also eager to test photovoltaic roofs. According to Longji’s statement, the company currently holds about 400MW of rooftop power generation projects, and has started the development and production of integrated photovoltaic building products, which will continue to provide solutions to various types of integrated photovoltaic building projects.Solutions and product and technical support.