The initial enthusiasm for the listing will be over the true and false unicorns
[Depth]The true and fake unicorns have gone through the enthusiasm in the initial stage of listing, and the so-called unicorn companies have already differentiated.
Chen Feiya Source: Visual China Carelessly, Li Qi became a paner once and for all.
Buying on ZhongAn Online (6060.
HK) For the next three months, Li Qi watched the Internet fintech company continue to go down.
As a company that provides online insurance product sales and claims services, Zhongan Online gradually increased by 79% from the issue price at the beginning of its listing.
“Although I do not expect to reproduce the large increase at the beginning of the listing, it is still a bit unexpected. Zhongan is only a unicorn and the first stock of Hong Kong fintech,” said Li Qi.
However, Zhongan Online is not the only Hong Kong stock that gives investors a hard time.
Since last year, the fund has been established for less than 10 years, and the business development prospects are good. Unicorn companies with an average market estimate of more than 1 billion US dollars have successively entered the Hong Kong stock market.
In addition to Zhongan Online, Reading Group (0772.
HK), Ping An Good Doctor (1833.
HK), Razer (1337.
HK) and Yixin Group (2858.
HK) is also a popular unicorn company.
These companies were lively at the beginning of the Hong Kong stock market listing, but subsequent bursts also caught investors off guard.
As of June 5, the average value of Zhongan Online, Reading Group, Yixin Group, Razer and Ping An Good Doctor showed a decline, and the market value has lost more than 180 billion euros at an earlier high.
Except for the Reading Group, the shares of the other four companies have all been issued.
Among them, Ping An Good Doctor broke his hair on the second trading day after listing, and Yixin Group, 成都桑拿网 Razer previously fell more than 50% from its historical high.
What happened to these unicorns?
An investment banker told Interface News that listing is a long-distance run, not faster than a long run.
“The enthusiasm in the early stages of the listing has caused so-called unicorn companies to diverge.
“When the listing went wild, these unicorns were eye-catching and gold-absorbing.
Online reading giant Reading Group is one such high-profile company.
After experiencing the golden development period of online reading, in November 2017, Reading Group entered the Hong Kong stock market with an issue price of 55 generations / share.
The listing of the company once triggered a shortage of funds in the Hong Kong market.
Based on the issue price of 55, the market value of Reading Group is about 435.
0.8 合肥夜网 billion to 498.
500 million construction rooms.
Surprisingly, the Reading Group was enthusiastically welcomed by institutions and retail investors.
Data show that the Reading Group has received 622 times over-subscription and frozen funds of more than 520 billion euros.
The enthusiasm of Reading Group has become the second largest frozen stock in Hong Kong’s IPO history, far exceeding Zhongan Online.
Backed by the “myth” of the Hong Kong stock market of Tencent Group, even under the weak profitability of the replacement, the reading group still dazzled in the capital market, the opening price reached 90 feet on the first day of listing, the highest point rushed to 110 feet per share, the highest increaseReached 100%.
The daily report closed at 90 reconstructions / shares, an increase of 86.
Backed by peace, Ali and Tencent’s Zhongan Online are also highly sought after.
Under the aura of Hong Kong’s first fintech, ZhongAn also over-purchased 391 when it was issued online.
Although it is not as good as the subscription multiple of 622 times of the Reading Group, it can also rank among the top ten over-purchased companies in the history of Hong Kong stocks.
On the day of listing on September 28, 2017, ZhongAn Online opened up 15%.58% reported 69 reconstructions, with a total market value of 99.4 billion reconstructions.
The highest point on the first day of listing reached 70 burns / share and closed at 65 afterwards.
2 refreshes / shares, divided into 54.
The price of 65 reductions / shares is too high.
ZhongAn Online continued to rise to 97.
8 burns / share, a 79% increase over the issue price.
In terms of estimation and price-earnings ratio, the Hong Kong stock market highly trusts these unicorns.
The data shows that the P / E ratio of Reading Group was as high as 1150 times when it went public, and the price-earnings ratio of Zhongan Online was as high as 7000 times.
In addition, WuXi Bio’s price-earnings ratio is as high as 350 times.
Even Razer, Ping An Good Doctor, etc., which are not yet profitable, have reached -46 times and -74 times.
A Hong Kong investment banker believes that the persistence of the Alibaba Department of the Hong Kong stock market for Tencent has caused some unicorns to lead too high estimates.
“The Hong Kong stock market believes in Tencent, Ali and other stocks.
This is why there is no major issue for distribution as long as it is backed by a Tencent-based company.
“In his opinion, these unicorns are all on the high side.
For companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market, their new share issuance will be divided into two parts, placing and public offering.
Placing is a new way for funds, high net worth investors or other financial institutions to participate, while retail investors and other investors participate in public offerings.
As the Hong Kong stocks implement a fair distribution mechanism of “more subscriptions, more allocations”, the success rate of new shares in Hong Kong stocks will be higher.
In terms of prices, the issue price of Hong Kong stocks is determined by the market.
Specifically, the pricing of Hong Kong stock issuance is determined by the investment bank, and the number of subscribers determines whether the price will be broken.
Generally speaking, the subscription multiple is expected to reduce the probability of a break in the short term.
This is also the beginning of the IPO price of Hong Kong stocks being the most different from that of A shares. To a certain extent, it also caused a certain bubble when the IPO was listed.
These bubbles will eventually be squeezed out and presented as bursts of hair.
Continuing new low data shows that of the 246 stocks listed on the Hong Kong stock market since January 2017, the market closed on June 5 for a total of 123 stocks, which accounted for 52% of the decline in opening prices.
Most of the unicorns in the performance list of Hong Kong stocks that have been broken since their listing have performed poorly after listing.
Ping An Good Doctor, which broke out on the second trading day after listing, is a subsidiary of Ping An Group and was established in November 2014.
Ping An Good Doctor includes four major business sectors: family doctor services, consumer medicine, health mall, health management and interactive sectors.
Although the business model is new, Ping An Good Doctor is still in the early stage of cultivation at this stage.
Among the customers of Ping An Good Doctor, the top five are Ping An Life Insurance, Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, Ping An Bank, Ping An Health Insurance, and Ping An Hewlett-Packard Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. These companies replace Ping An ‘s industrial company, in other words, alsoRelated parties.
In addition, the products and services subscribed by Ping An and its close associates in 2016 and 2017 accounted for nearly 50% of Ping An Good Doctor’s current revenue.
The services of Ping An Good Doctor are mainly other businesses affiliated to Ping An Group.
In terms of performance, Ping An Good Doctor is also in the intervention stage.
From 2015 to 2017, the income of Ping An Good Doctor was 2 respectively.
7.9 billion, 6.
02 trillion and 18.
6.8 billion yuan, a strong growth rate.
At the same time, the company’s net profit has continued, reaching three in three years.
2.4 billion, 7.
5.8 billion and 10.
2.0 billion, the annual budget is continuously expanding.
In addition to Ping An Good Doctor, ZhongAn’s online performance also fell short of expectations.After the completion of the listing, the company’s 2017 annual report performance changed greatly, and the expected breakthrough is as high as 10.
Although the company explained that the expected initial is an accrued unearned liability reserve, its proportion to net premium income increased from 4 in 2016.
2% growth to 19 in 2017.
But in fact this does not contradict everything.
Similar to Ping An Good Doctor, the weakness of ZhongAn Online is that it relies on third parties and lacks initiative.
Data show that Zhongan Online’s sales scenarios are mainly provided by third-party platforms such as Taobao.
For example, Taobao’s return insurance when buying, auto insurance when selling auto insurance, etc.
The above reasons have led to market doubts about the sustainability of Zhongan Online’s future performance.
In addition, Razer, which is famous for selling mice, is also deeply trapped and has not yet found a profit model.
From 2015 to 2017, the company’s revenue reached 20.
7.6 billion, 27.
2 trillion and 33.
8.4 billion, with a net profit of 1.
3.2 billion, 4.
1.2 billion and 10.
7.2 billion, expected to continue to expand.
Zhang Kaixing, founder and CEO of Golden Axe, said that there are many companies in Hong Kong stocks that are estimated to be falsely high in terms of fundamentals, so it is normal for them to go down after listing.
From the perspective of the investment bankers in Hong Kong, the overestimation of a company at the initial stage of listing actually reflects the market’s expectations for the company’s future, but if it is overestimated, investors will be educated by the market if there is no performance support.
“The market is a touchstone, and unicorns are not just words, they have to be tested.
“Some companies that can withstand high estimates will skyrocket after listing and continue to be sought after by the capital market.
For other “pseudo unicorns”, their listing will only accelerate their fall.
Since last week, ZhongAn Online, Yixin Group, Ping An Good Doctor, and Razer have all achieved new low convergence since listing. What is the future of the unicorn now?
Time will post the answer.