Macalline (601828): Self-employed committee manages two-wheel drive omni-channel continuous upgrade

Macalline (601828): Self-employed committee manages two-wheel drive omni-channel continuous upgrade
This report reads: The company is a regional leader in the Sichuan home furnishing chain. It has a first-mover advantage and status as a brand influencer. It has a stable operation, self-managed commissions and two-wheel drive, and constantly enriches its service format.Continue to pay dividends, the index rate is high and stable. Investment points: Investment advice: The first and second tier self-operated rental income is stable, the third and fourth tier commissions are expanding rapidly, and the project reserve accumulation is accumulating. In cooperation with the giant Internet giants, they continue to promote the omni-channel new retail strategy, and there will be continued growth momentum with reduced future performance.The company’s EPS for 2019-21 will be maintained at 1.48/1.72/1.97 yuan, considering the company’s H1 profitability merger and combined with comparable companies, reduce the target price to 14.8 yuan, corresponding to 10 times PE in 2019, maintaining the “overweight” level. Performance is in line with expectations.In 2019H1, the revenue reached 77.75 ppm, +21 a year.70%; net profit attributable to mother 27.06 billion, ten years -10.96%.The gross profit margin for 2019H1 is 67.0%, twice -2.3pct is mainly due to the increase in revenue from construction engineering and design business, and the change in revenue structure has led to a decline in comprehensive gross profit.19H1 sales / management / finance / R & D expense ratio division 12.01% / 9.06% / 12.69% / 0.22%, ten years +1.87/0.78/3.48/0.07pct, new business development and new mall marketing expenses are the main reasons for the high increase in sales research and development expenses. Self-operated rental income grew steadily, and revenue from commissioning and other businesses grew faster.19H1 growth rate of self-employment and rental income11.8%; the annual commission management service income increases by 21 each year.9%, business information fee and investment commission income +284 per year.2%, construction engineering and design income +104 per year.3% is the main driver of overall revenue growth. Continuously upgrade to omni-channel universal home business 天津夜网 platform service providers.The company has established strategic partnerships with Tencent, Xinchao Media, and Alibaba, providing home improvement services offline, and online APP for online retailing of household goods, with significant synergies.The company’s data analysis and accurate online omni-channel drainage capabilities are improving. Risk warning: real estate industry policy changes, household consumption growth is less than expected, etc.

Yunnan Baiyao (000538): The new board of directors has settled and the mixed reform will be completed and set sail

Yunnan Baiyao (000538): The new board of directors has settled and the mixed reform will be completed and set sail

Event: The company is about to hold its second extraordinary general meeting in 2019, and vote to elect the ninth board of directors, members of the supervisory board, and hire a new executive of the company.

Opinion: Mr. Wang Minghui continues to serve as the 深圳spa会所 chairman of the company, and the number of board members matches the shareholder’s shareholding ratio.

In the new term of the Board of Directors, Mr. Wang Minghui will continue to serve as Chairman of the Company, supplementing Mr. Chen Fashu as Co-Chairman and Mr. Wang Rong as Vice Chairman of the Company.

7 non-independent directors: Chen Fashu, Chen Yihui, Wang Rong, Na Pengjie, Li Shuangyou, Wang Minghui, Yang Changhong; 3 independent directors: Yin Xiaobing, Dai Yang, Zhang Yongliang (1 non-independent director will be added later).

After the company merged with Baiyao, Yunnan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Xinhua Capital and concert parties acted as the largest shareholder of the listed company. The company has no actual controller. Ping An of China plans to reduce its holdings.

From 杭州桑拿 the background of the members of the new board of directors, the number of directors matches the shareholder’s shareholding ratio: 2 senior executives of Yunnan Baiyao (Wang Minghui, Yang Changhong), and 2 seats of Xinhuadu (Chairman of Xinhuadu Industrial Group, Chen Fashu, and director of Xinhuadu Industrial Group)Xun Hui), 2 seats from SASAC (Wang Rong and Na Pengjie, professors of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics), 1 seat from Yunhe Group (Li Shuangyou, deputy general manager of Yunnan Hehe Group), and Ping An of China no longer has a director seat.

The positions of the former senior management team are basically unchanged, and CEOs will be selected globally.

Among the new executives, Wang Minghui is the interim CEO, and the company’s board of directors is actively seeking CEOs around the world to highlight the company’s internationalization process.

Yin Pinyao is chief operating officer, senior vice president and president of the Chinese Medicine Resources Division; Ms. Wang Jin is senior vice president and president of the pharmaceutical division; Qin Wanmin is senior vice president and president of the health products division; Yang Yong is senior vice president and part-timePresident of Yunnan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd .; Wu Wei is the company’s chief financial officer (financial director), senior vice president, and secretary of the board of directors; Yu Juan is the chief human resources officer (human resources director); Li Jin is the director of technical quality; Zhu Zhaoyun is the research and development of Chinese medicinedirector.

The positions of the former senior management team were basically unchanged.

Earnings forecast and rating: Taking into account the increase in net profit after the injection of Baiyao Holding’s assets, the expansion of its share capital, and the merger of cash assets, the earnings per share will be adjusted to 3 in 19-21.



09 yuan (original 3.



8 yuan), corresponding to 19-21 years PE is 25/22/19 times.

The company’s long-term strategic goals are ambitious. After the new director-general is in place, it will accelerate its progress and have a bright future.

Risk warning: the progress of stock repurchase exceeds expectations; the progress of new business and outsourcing M & A exceeds expectations.

Comment on Major Issues of Dashenlin (603233)-Reasonably evaluate the acquisition of high-quality target Q4 and accelerate its expansion

Comment on Major Issues of Dashenlin (603233)-Reasonably evaluate the acquisition of high-quality target Q4 and accelerate its expansion

The company intends to acquire high-quality targets with reasonable estimates; the expansion of the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate, and the layout outside the province is worth looking forward to; the outflow of prescriptions continues to accelerate, and new types of industry are blossoming.

Those who intend to acquire high-quality targets with reasonable estimates are expected to increase future performance.

The company announcement intends to 1.

2.7 billion acquisition of 51% equity of Nantong Jianghai Pharmacy Chain Co., Ltd.

Jianghai Pharmacy includes 123 chain drugstores (of which 113 are open, and medical insurance stores account for 76).

1%), sales from January to July 20191.

2.8 billion, net profit 604.

250,000 yuan, corresponding to a net sales margin of 4.

At 7%, the net interest rate level of the benchmark ginseng forest at 6% has further room for improvement.

The target company currently leases area1.

630,000 square meters, from January to July 2019, the average daily efficiency is 47 yuan / square meter, compared with 85 in the first half of Dashen Forest.

8 yuan / square meter level, there is room for significant improvement in operating efficiency.

This acquisition corresponds to PS1 in 2019.

14 times. Considering that Nantong is strategically located and Jianghai Pharmacy ranks among the best in terms of local sales scale and brand power, the acquisition is reasonable.

Jianghai Pharmacy promises to achieve a profit / net profit of no less than 2 in 2019.

20 ppm / 12 million yuan, corresponding to a single store annual sales income of 194.

70,000 yuan, net profit of 10.

60,000 yuan.

2020/2021 promise to complete this project2.

5.3 billion / 2.

9.1 billion US dollars, deducting non-net profit of 13.8 million / 15.87 million yuan, according to 2020 and published estimates to increase the company’s revenue in 2020/2021.

52% / 1.

40% and 0% of net profit attributable to mothers in 2020/2021.

78% / 0.


The expansion of Q4 is expected to accelerate, and the layout outside the province is worth looking forward to.

The company’s first three quarters saw a net increase of 376 stores (41 franchisees). The expansion speed was affected by the restrictions of licensed pharmacists in a phased way.

In addition, Jixi City Lingfeng Pharmacy, Xi’an Kangxin Pharmacy and many other projects are yet to be implemented. The construction of overlapping new stores is accelerating, and the company is expected to return to the high-speed expansion channel from Q4 (there are expected to be 800-900 new stores).

This acquisition marks the company’s strategic entry into the major economic provinces and population-intensive provinces of Jiangsu Province. After the completion of the merger and acquisition, the company will gradually reduce the cost of merchandise procurement through the sharing of procurement platforms, strengthen the professionalism and standardization of stores, and optimize regional consumer categories and agency varieties to further increase sales.And profit levels.

As the company accelerates its layout in blank provinces, it is expected to replicate the high profitability in Guangdong in many provinces in the future, and the incremental space is worth looking forward to.

The outflow of prescriptions has accelerated, and new types of business have blossomed.

Recently, Guangdong ‘s small overall account and major chronic disease medical insurance have gradually liberalized high-level pharmacies. The construction of a provincial prescription sharing platform has continued to advance. After the establishment of the prescription collection platform, it will help the company to purchase a variety of products and expand the purchase amount. A number of policies have helpedThe prescription has been accelerated, and the company’s revenue from prescription drugs has increased to 29% in the first three quarters of 2019.

In addition, the company’s DTP pharmacy management system and professional management team have been completed, and DTP business sales are expected to reach 200 million yuan.

Considering that the supervision of online drug sales is expected to be gradually and deliberately liberalized in the future, relying on the company’s logistics system, refined management, informatization and omnichannel member management advantages, the company’s in-depth layout of O2O business is expected to usher in rapid development.

The multi-point blossoming of new business has further opened up new space for the out-of-hospital market.

Risk factors: M & A integration fails to meet expectations, and excessive competition reduces gross profit margin.

Profit forecast and estimation.

The company is deeply cultivating in South China and has a nationwide distribution. The expansion of its stores has steadily advanced.Taking into account the company’s M & A expansion in the next few years and the rapid growth expected from the reform of Guangdong’s medical insurance account, we maintain the EPS forecast for 2019-2021.



22 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555): Playful and Unbounded Future Can Be Expected

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555): Playful and Unbounded Future Can Be Expected


Reexamination History: Since its establishment, the company has seized every inflection point of the industry and continuously researched the methodology of the game. The game business has maintained annual revenue growth (2012-2018 CAGR52%): the first stage (2012-2015): the company fromFrom the page game operation platform to page game self-research, it has become the second largest page game manufacturer after Tencent. The market share of page game (income caliber) reached 16 in 2015.

7%; the mobile game industry has experienced explosive growth (CAGR151%), player dividends are obvious, competition is scattered, third-party application stores such as 360 mobile assistant, app treasure, Baidu mobile assistant are 佛山桑拿网 active; during the same period, the company’s main revenue came from page games(In 2015, page game revenue accounted for 87%), mobile games are still in the exploration period (starting with agent distribution); the second stage (2016-2017): 2016 is the year when the page game industry ‘s turning point is downward.The company ‘s average revenue from page games experienced double-digit negative growth. Players tended to switch to mobile games, and page game manufacturers turned to mobile game R & D, which accounted for 49.

5%) for the first time over the end game to become the first category; 2017 mobile game player growth rate (4.

9%) has become an individual figure, and benefiting from the national explosion, the industry income has maintained a high growth rate (41.

7%); hard core alliance (high penetration rate of 武汉夜生活网 smartphones) and application treasure (Tencent’s social products to guide the game) channels are clearly centralized, headlines and other information flow ads bring traffic increase: during the same period, based on agency businessAccumulated experience.

Leveraging the “channel + purchase” model, the company’s first successful self-developed mobile game led to a surge in mobile game revenue (2016-2017 mobile game revenue growth rate was 219% / 100% respectively); the third stage (2018(Year-2019): BATT occupies 70% + of the entire APP’s usage time, super APPs transmit traffic to high ground, relying on high user penetration and effective exposure of advertisements, and appropriately adjusted buying volume games have achieved player sinking, and buying volume has becomeStandard configuration capabilities, and the total volume of domestic manual travel purchases gradually exceeds the intermodal transport channel; while paying attention to product reputation, TapTap, Bilbili has moved from vertical communities to more circles, becoming a force that cannot be ignored in the intermodal transport channel; at the same time, the company’s advantages are prominent (Agile development architecture and integrated release system, release data accumulation and experience accumulation, strong free cash flow) From “product + purchase volume” to content upgrades, multiple products have been verified successively (nearly 10 self-developed mobile games in 6 years)Monthly turnover exceeds 100 million yuan), and the market share of mobile games has increased year by year (domestic distribution: 5% + in 2017, 6% + in 2018, and 10% + in 2019).

Performance of financial indicators: 2012-2018 game business revenue increased year by year (CAGR52%), 2016-2018 ROE maintained above 20% (excluding the impact of goodwill impairment), and gross profit margin increased year by year in 2013-2018 (proportion of mobile games) / Self-developed share / Revenue from purchases increased).

Gradually Free Cash Flow 2016-201832.

9ppm (ranked No. 1 among A-share game companies). In 2019, it will surpass a record high per capita (in the first three quarters, per capita income was 4.22 million yuan, and per capita profit was 690,000 yuan).

2. Looking to the future: The company’s founder team is stable (shareholding sharing), focusing on the main game industry (struggling in business-line), adhering to the spirit of marathon (long-term operation + continuous breakthrough), based on differentiated competition barriers, mobile game expansion category +Going to sea + the application of new technology to predict the distribution of benefits is expected to further open up the growth space: the core of future development: the founder’s team dream & value.

The core 100 people have a turnover rate of less than 5% in ten years. They are struggling to be at the forefront of the gaming business and have a very high degree of work concentration.

In 2019, the company’s equity incentive coverage covers a wide range (not more than 400 people), and the person in charge of research and development has recently increased the company’s shares and is deeply bound.

Performance strength: The company has grown into a breakthrough company (annual revenue scale of 10 billion +, profit scale of 20 billion +), using long-term old products as the basic performance basis, and continuously expanding the advantages of new products (ARPG) and new categories, anti-Risk capability grading has improved in the past; research and transportation capabilities: the purchase volume platform has been converted from CPC and OCPM to activation depth optimization, activation and implementation. Under the environment of more mature investment products, the company’s product decision-making is accurate and research and transportation integration is promotedWith the continuous iteration of the methodology, we will seek to maintain our advantages in the path of channel changes in the future.

The company’s self-developed larger talent expansion and capital investment (development research and development personnel mainly do ARPG, and new research and development personnel try to break through new categories), 2020-2021 target development and transformation (traditional and new categories account for half, andDo differentiated performance evaluation and encourage innovation).

Through self-developed + independent generation + investment, multi-point attack to enrich the reserves of new categories (important-SLG, second important one card, investment-two yuan / interactive products, etc.), accelerate the promotion of overseas business, and at the same time VR / AR gamesThere are also layouts for new technology applications.

Market share space: In 2019, the company’s advertising consumption only accounted for more than 10% of the overall mobile game purchases. It is expected to rely on self-developed advantages to seize the share of a single publisher in the future.

3. Profit forecast and investment grade: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 20 respectively.



7.1 billion yuan, corresponding to 31/27 / 23X PE.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk reminder: product launch progress / market performance / life cycle is less than expected, new category expansion and overseas business are less than expected, IP royalties and user acquisition costs increase, core talent loss, risk of lifting the ban and reducing holdings, corporate governance risks, market competition intensifies,Strict policy supervision, technological advances are not up to expectations, and market style switching.

Zhou Dasheng (002867) Annual Report Review: Revenue Increases 28%, Net Profit Increases 36%

Zhou Dasheng (002867) Annual Report Review: Revenue Increases 28%, Net Profit Increases 36%

The company released its 2018 annual report on April 23.

Revenue in 2018 was 48.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

97%; net profit attributable to mother 8.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.

15%, deducting non-net profit 7.

52 ppm, an increase of 32 in ten years.


The basic EPS is 1.

68 yuan; expected average return on net assets 22.

18%, net operating cash flow 3.

67 ppm, a 10-year increase3.


Profit distribution plan: 4.

8.7 billion shares are the base number, and 6 for every 10 shares.

5 yuan (including tax) increased by 5 shares, a total of 3 cash dividends were found.

1.7 billion.

Announcing the financial budget for 2019: It is expected that revenue will increase by 15-25% annually in 2019, and net profit will increase by 15-25% year by year.

Brief comments and investment recommendations.

1. Revenue increased by 27 in 2018.

97% to 48.

7 trillion, comprehensive gross margin increased by 1.

62 averages to 34%, of which 4Q18 revenue increased by 21.

53%, gross margin increased by 2.

15 marks.

① By industry: offline self-employed income11.

27 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

86%, accounting for 23 of total revenue.

14%, gross margin increased by 0.

12 up to 29.

92%; online self-employed (e-commerce) income 3.

5 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

69%, the previous cumulative sales of 45.

360,000 pieces, including 43.51 million yuan in sales of reorganized jewelry, sales volume 3.

310,000 pieces, an annual increase of 82.

93%, sales of plain gold jewelry3.

4.0 billion, sales of 40.
860,000 pieces, an annual increase of 14.
6%; franchise income 32.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

14%, accounting for 66 of total revenue.

67%, gross margin increased by 1.

36 averages to 33.

72%, of which the selected wholesale income of franchise business increased by 38.

83%, brand royalty income is increasing by 26.

01%, revenue from franchise and management services increased by 26 per year.

22%; revenue from supply chain services (Baotong Tianxia Supply Chain Service Company) and micro-credit income were 47.29 million and 4.98 million yuan each.

② Product breakdown: replacement of jewelry income 30.

830,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

17%, accounting for 63% of total income.

3%, gross margin increased by 1.

13 up to 25.

96%; Prime gold product income 11.

37 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

15%, accounting for 23 of total revenue.

34%, gross margin increased by 2.

76 up to 19.


③Region by region: All regions achieved positive growth in revenue, of which East China / Central China and Northwest China grew by over 30%, and South China and North China each increased by 28.

58% and 26.

46%, the Northeast and Southwest regions each increased by 15.

9% and 12.

39%; the average gross profit margin of each major region exceeds 30%, of which the gross profit margin of southern China increased by 6.

86 averages to 37.

45%, the gross profit margin of the Southwest District increased by 1.

38 up to 34.


Further segment the company’s various types of store benefits: (1) Self-operated stores: revenue growth rate of 10.

86%, single store income 3.97 million yuan, an increase of 11 year-on-year.

64%, single store gross profit of 1.19 million yuan, an annual increase of 12.

07%, both continue the growth trend in 2017.

(2) Franchised stores: revenue growth rate of 35.

14% maintained high growth, with a single store revenue of 1.18 million yuan, an annual increase of 11.

15%, single store gross profit of 400,000 yuan, an annual increase of 15.

84%, including 29 class increases.
16%, so we judge that the company is expected to maintain the same level of revenue and gross profit improvement while expanding the expansion of franchise stores.

2. Ordinarily opened 872 new stores, with a net opening of 651 stores and a total of 3375 stores.

At the company level, there were 820 new franchised stores and 52 self-operated stores; 195 franchised stores were closed, and 26 self-operated stores were closed; eventually, there were 651 net openings, including 625 franchised stores and 26 self-operated stores.
As of the end of 2018, the total number 杭州桑拿 of stores was 3,375, an increase of 23 per year.

9%, including 302 self-operated stores and 3073 franchised stores; the number of mall stores is 1,883, accounting for 55 of the total number of stores.

79%, the number of specialty stores is 1,492, accounting for 44 of the total number of stores.

21%, the number of specialty stores increased by 1 compared with 1,155 stores at the end of 2017.

81 units.

We expect the company to maintain a fast net store opening rate in the next 2 years, continue to strengthen the sinking of third- and fourth-tier channels, and further strengthen channel capabilities.

3. Sales expense ratio decreased by 1.

05 averages, the management expense rate increased by 0.

86 averages, mainly due to supplementary fair incentive costs.

The sales expenses increased by 73.38 million yuan, 厦门夜网 and the expense ratio decreased by 1.

05 averages to 10.

66%, mainly due to a significant increase in revenue and a decrease in staff budget expense ratio of 0.

82 units; management expenses increased by 60.28 million yuan, and the expense ratio increased by 0.

86 up to 2.

59%, mainly due to supplementary equity incentive expenses of 40.7 million yuan.

4. Revenue growth, gross profit margin increased, and operating profit increased by 30.


Non-operating net income increased by 27.89 million yuan, and the effective income ratio decreased by 1.

21 up to 23.

9%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 36.

15% to 8.

0.6 billion, up 32 after deducting non-value.

53%, excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, net profit attributable to mother increased by 43.

03% to 8.

4.7 billion.

Maintain judgment of the company.

The company locates mid- to high-end affiliated jewellery and joins the main body. It is self-supported and quickly sinks to third- and fourth-tier cities. As of the end of 2018, the total number of stores reached 3,375.

The company has significant advantages in scale; at the same time, through diversified product structures, the first scenario-style jewellery, exclusive dating 100-face cutting technology, and differentiated competition with Hong Kong-funded brands, attracting passenger traffic with pure gold and creating profits with intervention;Share plans to merge equity incentives to protect the growth of interim results.

Update profit forecast.

Taking into account the amortization of the cost of equity incentive costs, we update the company’s estimated revenue for 2019-2159.

6, 70.

19, 81.

14 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

39%, 17.

77%, 15.

59%; net profit attributable to mother 9.
9, 12.

18, 14.

76 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

81%, 23.
01%, 21.

17%, corresponding to 2 each for EPS.

03 yuan, 2.

5 yuan, 3.

03 yuan, after excluding amortization of equity incentive expenses by 25.

82%, 21.

39%, 20.


With reference to the 2019 estimates of comparable companies, taking into account the company’s high-end jewelry positioning, the asset-light model continues to accelerate rapid expansion, giving 18-22 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 36.


7 yuan, given the “preliminary market” rating.

risk warning.

Weak industry demand; uncertain expansion speed; inventory management risk; first-shareholder reduction risk.

China Merchants Shekou (001979): ROE continues to improve the layout of first- and second-tier cities and the core targets of the Greater Bay Area

China Merchants Shekou (001979): ROE continues to improve the layout of first- and second-tier cities and the core targets of the Greater Bay Area

Investment highlights: The company achieved operating income of 882 in 2018.

8 billion, a previous increase of 16.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 152.

4 billion, a previous increase of 20.

4%, in line with expectations.

Attributable net profit margin 17.

3% (+0.

6pct), expected ROE22.

2% (+2.


The company acquired 78% equity of China Merchants Zhangzhou Development Zone Company under the same control, resulting in adjustment of comparable data conversion in 2017.

The company’s non-recurring profit and loss in 2018 was 6.

400 million, down 19 points previously, mainly replaced by disposal of non-current assets7.

300 million contributions.

In terms of revenue structure, while stabilizing the advantages of the Shenzhen region, the company is striving for a balanced national distribution. Shenzhen and South China account for 22%, 12%, 31% in East China, 20% in Central China, and 14% in North China.

In terms of profit structure, the company realized investment income through the overall transfer of asset income65.

500 million, we think this is sustainable operating income. By dating mature partners, it can effectively help the company to accelerate the development of soil storage and increase the value of properties.

The company’s ROE improvement breakthrough was mainly due to the company’s increased leverage and continued improvement in profit levels.

Asset and debt restructuring of the company in 201874.

3%, an increase of 2 per year.

2 pct; gross margin is 39.

5%, increase by 1 every year.

7 pct, the highest in Shenzhen area is 52.

6%, followed by South China 29.

9%, the last in North China is 13.


In terms of turnover rate, since the growth rate of revenue is lower than the growth rate of total assets, there is still room for improvement. It is optimistic that the company’s ROE will remain high and continue to optimize the structure.

At the same time, the company received 604 in advance in 2018.

600 million (+ 10%), which is 68% of operating income, which is lower than the level of the same industry. This is the company’s characteristics as a resource-based housing enterprise, and it also has room to improve-accelerating the activation of live soil storage and enhancing operating efficiency.

佛山桑拿网 The company achieved a total of US $ 170.6 billion in this goal, with a 51% annual growth rate and 8.27 million miles of sales area, an increase of 45% in ten years.

The company has 214 projects for sale in nearly 60 urban areas.

In 2019, the company added 80 new projects and added 1357 Universal land storage construction surface (1 of the sales area.

64 times), with a total amount of 91.9 billion yuan (accounting for 54% of the sales amount according to Shenwan statistics), an equity ratio of 61%, and an average floor price of 6,770 yuan / square meter.

In 2019, the company entered the peak of completion and settlement, and the new construction has remained flat for many years. It is expected that the growth rate will be 17%.

In 2019, the company plans to start a new construction of 1100 Universal (many of which are basically the same), with a completed area of 1,000 Universal (+ 100%) and a contracted amount of 200 billion (+ 17%).

The company’s settlement area within the scope of consolidation in 2018 was 4.19 million.

At the end of 2018, the company had a land reserve of 53 million countries, with the Yangtze River Delta accounting for 29% and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area 28%.

Among them, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Kunming, and Suzhou have large-scale land reserves with settlement areas of more than 1.5 million. Financing costs remain low, and the dividend ratio is stable at more than 40%.

The company’s comprehensive financing costs in 20184.

85%, increasing by 5bp each year, significantly surpassing the industry level.

The dividend in 2018 was US $ 61 million, which is 40% of the net profit attributable to the mother, and the corresponding points 3 were calculated based on the closing price on March 18.


Maintain Overweight rating and lower earnings forecast.

The company’s ROE has steadily improved, with first- and second-tier cities as the main layout area. At the same time, soil reserves in the Greater Bay Area account for a relatively high proportion. Against the background of national sales decline, we are optimistic about the structural growth opportunities of first- and second-tier cities and the Greater Bay Area in 2019.

Therefore give an overweight rating.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-21 will be $ 188/225/26 billion, and the growth rate in the ten years will be 24% / 20% / 15%.

(Originally, the net profit attributable to mothers was estimated to be 20/25 billion in 2019-20, with a growth rate of 26% / 26% in decades)

San Aifu (600636) in-depth report: policy bonus + backed by central enterprises + R & D drive to create a leading smart education platform

San Aifu (600636) in-depth report: policy bonus + backed by central enterprises + R & D drive to create a leading smart education platform

Different views from the market: ① The market believes that the promotion of education informatization recording and broadcasting products is prolonged, but the actual landing effect is poor, and it is easy to be reduced to a superficial project. We believe that responding to education informatization and empowering education equity is an important way to solve the current educational disparity.One of the most deterministic educational circuits, and the program represented by normalized recording and broadcasting has the advantages of reducing procurement costs, taking into account education equity and big data teaching evaluation, and becoming the next outlet for educational information products.

②The market believes that the education information industry has low barriers and serious product homogeneity; we believe that the industry barriers include research and development innovation based on the nature of education, professional and widely distributed service teams, and channel resource capabilities and overall under the background of government procurement levels moving upSolution service capabilities.

We are optimistic that the company has developed technical solutions for leading industries based on educational attributes many times, with professional teams all over the country and backed by the central enterprise platform, which is expected to gain more domestic and foreign order opportunities and accelerate the company’s growth.

First company: Merger and acquisition of Ovia’s transformation of smart education, central enterprises holding.

The company’s traditional main business is the production and operation of the military’s fluorine chemical industry. In 2016, Guoxin Holdings, a subsidiary of Wenfa Group, made a price of 18.

100 million transferee of the former major shareholder Shanghai Huayi 20% equity, becoming the company’s new major shareholder; 2017 price of 1.9 billion acquisition of 100% equity of Ovia, and the price of 25.

5 million US dollars transferred part of the fluorochemical assets; Aovia’s net profit from non-return to mother in 2016-16 was 1.



0 million yuan, all exceeded performance commitments.

Brand + technology + service channels go hand in hand, leading products of recording and broadcasting extend vertically to raise the ceiling.

According to the statistics of the word frequency of China’s, Ovia is currently the company with the highest market share in the recording and broadcasting industry. Over 10 years of cases and honors have accumulated industry reputation and brand advantages. Over the years, it has maintained a ratio of about 12% in research and development.4K ultra-clear display, AI, big data and other elements, product technology leads the industry innovation; 33 provinces and cities across the country set up offices with more than 1,000 agents, sales channels + localization services.

At the same time, Aovia has successively deployed a variety of products in the field of education such as intelligent teaching terminals, educational content, and smart cloud platforms, and has entered the public inspection law, government and enterprise, medical and other industries to achieve horizontal and vertical expansion of products and drive the company’s long-term growth.

Backed by the central enterprise platform, channel resources + industrial integration grow in synergy.

The company is the only cultural listing platform owned by Guoxin Holdings. Under the background of the upward 杭州桑拿网 movement of educational informationization procurement and the development of regional large-scale procurement, the company is expected to obtain more order breakthroughs by relying on the central enterprise platform, and accompanied by the “Belt and Road”Strategically going overseas; meanwhile, relying on shareholder resources, we will gradually continue to integrate industries around the field of smart education and build an internally leading cultural education service platform.

Profit forecast: For the time being, we do not consider the extension and consider the impact of group costs. We lower the company’s net profit to 2 in 19-21.



9 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.



65 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 25/21/18 times.

By segment estimates, 19 years of education is expected to be 2.

3.7 billion US dollars, giving 30 times PE corresponding to 7.1 billion market value; 19 years of chemical street vendors group cost is estimated to be negative net profit, from a conservative perspective to give 1 PB corresponding to 2.4 billion market value, giving a target market value of 9.5 billion US dollars in general, continue to strongly recommend ratings.
Risk warning: Education integration fails to meet expectations

Great Wall Motor (601633): Sales continue to outperform the industry, it is recommended to pay attention to Great Wall H low-suction opportunities

Great Wall Motor (601633): Sales continue to outperform the industry, it is recommended to pay attention to Great Wall H low-suction opportunities
Company’s recent situation Great Wall Motor released its July production and sales report, with monthly sales of 60,357 units, an increase of 11%.1%, down 4 from the previous month.At 6%, the Haval brand sold 42,888 units, an increase of 15 per year.0%, down 5 from the previous month.2%.It is clear that the company issued an announcement to explain the news reports on the signing of special investment contracts with the Russian government and changes in joint venture projects with BMW. Comment on sales continued to outperform the industry, F series remained strong, Euler sales weakened.According to the weekly data of the Federation of Passenger Unions, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in July is 6% every six months.The annual growth of the Haval brand in July was the major increase contributed by the F series and M6. F7 and F5 sold 8,040 and 1,449 units respectively, and M6 sold 5,052 units, each doubling.Affected by the lag in H6 sports version of the country ‘s sixth switch, H6 sold 23,079 vehicles, up to -11.4%.The total sales volume of the WEY brand was 7,246, which remained stable, and the VV6 remained the main sales model.Euler remained weaker than the previous month, selling 2,071 vehicles in July.Looking ahead, the H6 Sports 苏州桑拿网 Edition, H2, M6 and pickups have begun to complete the Sixth National Switchover one after another. The increase in sales of related models will usher in an improvement from the previous quarter, while Euler’s demand may remain weak due to the subsidized decline. Russia’s construction of the plant follows the Belt and Road Initiative and adheres to its global strategy. The BMW project is proceeding as planned and the general direction remains unchanged.Regarding the Russian investment plan, we believe that the scale of the company is an important step in the long-term overseas market strategy of the Great Wall, and an important breakthrough in the Great Wall’s implementation of the One Belt One Road strategy.The specific operating budget, the remaining committed investment amount can be controlled, and the total investment amount promised by Great Wall is equivalent to RMB 45.USD 5.6 billion, the first phase of the plant has been completed and put into production, with a cumulative investment equivalent to RMB 24.9.2 billion yuan.Regarding the BMW joint venture project, the company clarified that the project is proceeding as planned, and the two parties are communicating details of the cooperation.We believe that due to the change of BMW leaders and cultural differences between the Chinese and foreign parties, friction may exist in the joint venture in the short term.However, from a fundamental point of view, there is no contradiction between the cooperation model and interests of the two sides.The cooperation project is of great significance to both BMW and Great Wall. For BMW, it is necessary to use the scale to realize the electrification of the MINI brand. For Great Wall, the resources and technologies that benefit from BMW will also be shared in the development. It is recommended to look forward, if the tail is gradually cleared, the competitiveness of Great Wall’s sustainable development products may directly benefit.Affected by the above-mentioned news, the Great Wall H has recently been reduced.We maintain our earnings forecast unchanged, maintain Great Wall A / H neutral rating, and maintain target price of 9.2 yuan, 6.2 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to 19 times 20 times, 12 times price-earnings ratio, the earlier price has 18%, 28% room. Risks The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; the price cut promotion has an unexpected impact on profitability.

Zijin Bank (601860): Taking advantage of location advantages to upgrade fundamentals

Zijin Bank (601860): Taking advantage of location advantages to upgrade fundamentals
Growing on the fertile soil of Nanjing’s developed economy, Zijin Bank is an old-fashioned rural commercial bank with roots in Nanjing. It is closely integrated with the economic growth of Nanjing.As the core city of an important metropolitan area, Nanjing has excellent economic development conditions.On this basis, the ratio of Zijin Bank to other rural commercial banks naturally has a geographical advantage.Locally, the market share of corporate deposits reaches 3.82%, loan market share reached 2.76%, taking the lead among small and medium commercial banks. From the perspective of ROE, the company has always been at a relatively high level. The company has been at the top of rural commercial banks before 2016. It has declined due to financial deleveraging in 2017, but increased by 8 in 2018.BP is one of the only rural commercial banks with individual ROE picking up.At present, the ROE level of the company is second only to Changshu Bank. We think this is related to the start of the company’s 2018 net interest margin rebound.In 2016 and 2017, the company’s net interest margin continued to extend to the lowest level among listed rural commercial banks, and has stabilized in September 2018.The main factors of its past net interest margin downlink were two: the interest rate on customer loans fell sharply; the response to bond surpluses and rising interest rates rose.In the future, we believe that the basis for the rise in net interest margin is: (1) The interest rates of customer loans and deposits have stabilized in 2018, and the company’s major part of its loans are incremental loans, which are not sensitive to the decline of short-term interest rates.(2) Changes in the implementation of regulatory policies, financial deleveraging, consolidation, and stable leverage. In 2019, liquidity will alternately be abundant, and Zijin Bank will be successfully listed again. Its financing cost will be reduced, and the cost of coping with bonds will likely decline. The proportion of retail loans is high, and small and medium-sized enterprises have been supported by medium and long-term loans. Since 2015, Zijin Bank loans have grown at a compound annual rate of 18%.74%, but the loan interest rate is mainly concentrated in a part of the range.Corporate loans are mainly used for customers, but personal loans also reach 24.19%, which is at the forefront among listed rural commercial banks. Since 2015, the maturity structure of the company’s public debt has been significantly extended, and the proportion of long-term and medium-term loans has gradually increased, which is expected to be related to the accelerated pace of economic construction in Nanjing in recent years.As one of the largest small, medium and micro enterprises in Nanjing and one of the “agricultural, rural, and rural” financial service institutions, the company’s small and micro loans accounted for 61.01%, loans to medium-sized enterprises have also increased significantly since 2016. The company’s retail loans are mainly housing mortgage loans, accounting for 67%.24%, the composite carbonization in the past three years also reached 38.25%, personal consumption loans have also grown significantly.With the increase in the disposable income of residents in Nanjing, housing mortgage loans, which account for two-thirds of personal loan balances, will continue to be the main driving force for the company’s personal loan growth, and personal consumer loans will also increase.Early high levels. The cost of deposits is low, and there is some pressure on bonds payable. Zijin Bank deposits account for 63% of total debt.48%, the current rate is stable between 62% and 65%. On the whole, the corporate deposit interest rate is the lowest among rural commercial banks.In the past two years, the company has issued complementary interbank certificates of deposit and secondary capital bonds, thereby increasing the cost of additional liabilities.It is expected that in the future, the increase in absorption and precipitation will reduce this proportion. Improved bad control ability to resolve high stock ratio Although Zijin Bank’s bad rate is numerically the second highest among listed rural commercial banks, two aspects can prove that its bad control ability has been strengthened, and the probability of bad future will steadily decline: 1) The risk of badness was revealed earlier, and the badness rate continued to decline steadily.As early as 2015, Zijin Bank’s loans that were overdue for more than 90 days were 100% classified as non-performing and converted, and its non-performing rate continued to decline steadily. From 2015 to 2018, the company’s non-performing rate has gradually decreased by 60 BP.The largest decline among commercial banks. (2) The net generation rate is low, the downward migration is less, and the room for write-off and transfer promotion is large.Zijin Bank’s NPL ratio is only 0.07%, the lowest among listed rural commercial banks, and the second-lowest Changshu Bank, with 32 BP.The downward migration rate of attention loans has remained at the same level in the industry.In addition, Zijin Bank’s write-off transfer was not strong, and the write-off transfer rate was the lowest among listed rural commercial banks, leaving enough room for future efforts to increase efforts as needed. Three major highlights of the fundamentals. We believe that the supporting points to support the company’s estimated growth are: first, the foundation of the net interest margin to stabilize and rise is solid, and the space is large; second, the regional economy is developed, the bad risks are clarified, and the bad net generation rate is lowThere is a lot of room for improvement in the transfer of write-offs. Third, the retail business covers a wide area and the growth momentum is guaranteed. Investment advice Zijin Bank is the largest of the listed rural commercial banks, and its business is basically located in Nanjing.The local economy is developed and the company’s qualifications are good, which guarantees the asset quality of Zijin Bank. We are more optimistic about the performance of the company after its listing. In essence: First, the steady rise of the 杭州夜网论坛 net interest margin has brought about a rise in the ROE.The performance forecast shows that the company’s ROE increased by 8 BP in 2018, which is one of most rural commercial banks with an increase in ROE. Second, the resistance pressure will decrease and NIM will continue to increase.In the past, the pressure on the company’s net interest margin mainly came from the rise in the cost rate of interest-bearing debt, especially the issue of interbank certificates of deposit with high capital costs, the conversion of financial deleveraging ended, and the entry into “stable leverage”.It is expected that the company’s interest-bearing reduced cost rate will continue to decline, while the interest-earning asset yield will increase and stabilize, and the net interest margin may continue to increase. Thirdly, the bad control ability 合肥夜网 is strong, the bad stock is steadily decreasing, and there is a lot of room for improvement in the future.Zijin Bank’s non-performing control capability has continued. It has maintained a 100% non-performing loan overdue for more than 90 days since 15 years. The non-performing rate has declined the most among rural commercial banks since 16 years. The net generation rate is the lowest.Small, it can be improved significantly in the future. Fourth, the retail business covers a wide area and retail loans account for a relatively high proportion.The company’s individual customers accounted for over 46% of Nanjing’s total population, and retail loans accounted for the third largest among listed rural commercial banks. This has transformed into regional economic development and the improvement of residents’ living standards, and the scale of retail loans has grown rapidly. 我们预计公司19\20 年营收增速分别为17.42%, 18.87%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was 12 respectively.16%, 14.70%; BVPS is 3.52 yuan, 3.82 yuan; the corresponding PE is 24.58, 21.43, the corresponding PB is 2.69, 2.48.The effect of the new shares will continue to exist, and it is estimated to exceed the industry and other stocks.Give “overweight” rating, 6-month target price of 11 yuan.

Macalline (601828): Cooperate with Ali’s comprehensive new retail transformation to empower merchants to increase passenger flow

Macalline (601828): Cooperate with Ali’s comprehensive new retail transformation to empower merchants to increase passenger flow
Event: On May 24, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Ali, which will date Ali’s advanced concepts and technologies in the new retail field, and further promote the company’s main business online integration.The specific cooperation content includes the following seven aspects: 1) the construction of new retail stores, which will be promoted to all stores from the pilot; 2) the construction of e-commerce platforms for the company based on Ali e-commerce alternative platforms and payment systemsTaobao and other Ali designated platforms to open stores) for online sales of the company’s furniture and building materials; 3) The company has independently completed the development of the logistics system, and Ali provides technical support. The company further promises to cooperate with Cainiao to carry out logistics layout; 4) Alipay-related consumptionThe landing of financial products and technical capabilities in the company’s stores; 5) Creating a composite business format of the company’s stores; 6) Payment system: jointly promote the company’s store cashier system to integrate with Ali’s new retail intelligent POS system, and the two sides conduct accurate marketing and drain each other;Establish the necessary information sharing system. With the empowerment of Ali, the construction of smart stores will continue to the next city.The company’s cooperation with Ali will focus on the construction of new retail stores. Relying on Ali’s digital and information technology, smart stores will continue to be promoted in the future to enable technology to empower traditional industries.The company has accumulated a certain amount of store information and intelligence. It has established a smart store in Shanghai Jinqiao, using independent research and development of information systems, including smart shopping mall solutions, data center and big data platforms, and commercial real estate management systems., Industry-finance integration solution, human resource management solution, company internal management solution, etc.Through, collect the operating conditions of offline malls (consumer shopping routes, shopping preferences and consumer needs, etc.) through intelligent mall solutions to achieve precise marketing and increase passenger flow; gradually, provide information management solutions for inbound merchants to empower merchantsIncrease customer stickiness. All-round new retail transformation measures to attract passenger flow and increase merchant presence.In terms of the form and content of the company’s cooperation with Ali, in the future, the company will leverage Ali to carry out all-round new retail transformation and upgrade from offline stores, online platforms, warehousing and logistics, payment systems, big data and finance.Due to the anticipation of home product consumption and emphasis on experience, offline channels have always been an important channel for home sales, but they also face the problem of increasing customer disadvantages.The new retail concept proposed by Ali has reorganized the “people and goods yard”, deeply integrated online and offline, improved customer acquisition based on big data, and improved the efficiency of warehousing and logistics to achieve the transition from “people looking for goods” to “”Finding people”.The company’s comprehensive new retail transformation this time will help increase store traffic and customer acquisition, and increase the attraction of home building materials brands. The commissioned business continued to expand and gradually transformed into an asset-light operation.The company committee management business does not build its own shopping malls. Instead, it provides consulting, management and other services to replace project naming consulting fees, investment commissions, business management consulting fees and entrusted operating management fees, etc., to achieve asset-light operations.In 18 years, there were 50 new shopping malls under management, a total of 228 shopping malls under management, and realizing income from commissioning 41.7.7 billion, contributing nearly 37% of revenue. The entrusted shopping mall is operating well and the average occupancy rate remains above 95%.At the same time, the company has reserved 361 committee-managed projects. It is expected that the committee-managed projects will expand steadily in the coming years and continue to promote the company’s shift to asset-light operation. Build benchmark stores by ourselves, and advance new retail.At the end of 18, the company had 80 self-operated stores and 9 new self-operated stores. The expansion of the company’s self-operated stores was concentrated in first-tier cities, and its benchmarking role was conducive to building the company’s brand power.At the same time, the company established home experience halls and self-operated home improvement stores in 18 years. Under the process of scale expansion, the capital gains are good and the operating efficiency is improved. The fixed asset turnover rate in 18 years has increased significantly11.1% to 81.07 times.The company actively embraces new retail, cooperates with Tencent to build an IMP system, empowers terminal stores, and comprehensively improves the conversion rate (repurchase of members by 45%).In the future, through new retail empowerment, it is expected to promote continued growth in offline sales of home furnishings and bring additional business income to the company. The company is a domestic leading home furnishing mall, with a two-wheel drive of “self-employed + commissioned” business, transforming into asset-light operations, actively promoting new retail transformation, and maintaining a “buy” rating.It is expected that the company will realize net profit attributable to mothers in 19-21.77/64.44/75.3.5 billion, an increase of 20 each year.1% / 19.9% / 16.9% of PE 7 currently sustainable.7/6.5/5.5 times. Risk reminders: The decline in demand for home furnishings and furniture, intensified competition in the industry, a 西安耍耍网 significant decline in the fair value of real estate, a decline in profitability in self-employed and commissioned models, and uncertainties in cooperation.